The Babylon Observer

Links for 12/10/09

Merrikh — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:22:55 +0000

South Waziristan ground offensive “imminent” | (BBC) Bombs hit the ground and soldiers prepare to enter the South Waziristan Taliban stronghold, but after a series of high-profile attacks in Peshawar, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, how much longer can they afford to wait?
Pakistan police warned Army about raid? | (NYT) Suspected Lashkar-e-Jhangvi militants return after two previous attacks in Pakistan, with Punjab police reportedly warning the Army of specific details of Saturday’s daring attack, while also suggesting the Taliban insurgency has spilled into Punjab and is no longer confined to the tribal areas.
Battle of COP Keating: an earwitness account | (FP) A through-the-grapevine account of the recent battle in Nuristan in which eight American soldiers were killed.
Afghan outlook bleak as Taliban grab territory | (WaPo) How bleak exactly?: “No one thinks Kabul will fall while American forces are here…[although] the quiet truth whispered by soldiers in the field and aid workers in Kabul is that the Afghan government is not likely to ever control southern Afghanistan’s wildlands, the foreboding territory beyond the provincial capitals.”
Afghanistan: Golf Company | (CBS) Embedded video of US Marine company sent to Helmand as part of build-up strategy in Southern provinces.
Israeli’s bid to buy Al Jazeera | (Palestine Telegraph) Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse…

Links for 06/10/09

Merrikh — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:51:59 +0000

TTP claims UN attack | (BBC) Spokesman Azam Tariq claims TTP responsibility for Monday’s attack on UN World Food Programme offices in Islamabad, describing UNWFP as “‘infidels’ promoting an American agenda” and “not in the interest of Muslims”. The UN has temporarily closed its offices in the city. Pakistani authorities are bracing for more attacks in coming days as the Army prepares to take the plunge into Waziristan.
Pakistan jets bomb S. Waziristan | (Al Jazeera) Pakistani jets drop bombs on Makin and Nawaz Kot in S. Waziristan tribal region, killing six suspected Taliban fighters and wounding three others.
US push into Pakistan meets resistance | (NYT) Pakistani sovereignty sore over American aid, embassies & deployment of private security groups.

Links for 05/10/09

Merrikh — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:56:31 +0000

Suicide blast hits UN office in Islamabad | (BBC) Bomber disguised as Frontier Corp. soldier kills 5 at UN World Food Programme office in Islamabad. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack though suspicion falls upon Pakistani Taliban.
Hakimullah Mehsud: “I’m alive” | (Al Jazeera) Pakistani Tehreek-e-Taliban’s new leader appeared to Mehsud-clan reporters on Sunday, vowing to retaliate for US drone strikes. American officials erstwhile are considering “a strategy of intensified drone attacks combined with the deployment of special operations forces against al-Qaeda and Taliban targets on the Pakistani side of the border.” The Pakistani military seems poised to delve into the belly of the beast itself right now. It seems possible that US and Pakistani forces’ final push into Waziristan is coordinated, and whether or not this is the case, their combined military campaigns may decide the fate of Pakistani Taliban leadership permanently, or otherwise change the face of it completely.
The “Rural vs. Urban” COIN-toss | (NYT) With major decisions impending upon a new direction for the war in Afghanistan, the Obama administration is forced to consider one strategy of deploying troops solely to protect urban centers while leaving the countryside to an enemy who militarily thrives there.
Tale of the Beard in Pakistan | (Dawn) Would I rather mine be “Marxist” or “Maulana”?
["Maulana", obviously]

Links for 16/09/09

Merrikh — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 19:55:10 +0000

Another Taliban commander caught in Swat | (BBC) Sher Mohammed Qasab, near Charbagh. Another Rs10million head.
Military operation name-game | (NYT) Sweet article in the NYT about the fine art of naming military ops, i.e. “How long are we going to be enduring this freedom?”
Obama sets AF-PAK objectives | (Reuters) Reuters obtained a copy of a draft document outlining Obama-administration objectives for countering insurgency and terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nothing much is new here, though it seems to signal a future emphasis on developing a stable civilian government in Islamabad and striking militant groups located “especially” in Pakistan:

OBJECTIVE 1: Disrupt terrorist networks in Afghanistan and especially Pakistan to degrade any ability they have to plan and launch international terrorist attacks.

OBJECTIVE 2a: Assist efforts to enhance civilian control and stable constitutional government in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE 2b: Develop Pakistan’s counterinsurgency capabilities; continue to support Pakistan’s efforts to defeat terrorist and insurgent groups.

OBJECTIVE 2c: Involve the international community more actively to forge international consensus to stabilize Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE 3a: Defeat the extremist insurgency, secure the Afghan populace, and develop increasingly self-reliant Afghan security forces that can lead the counterinsurgency and counterterrorism fight with reduced U.S. assistance.

OBJECTIVE 3b: Promote a more capable, accountable, and effective government in Afghanistan that serves the Afghan people and can eventually function, especially regarding internal security, with limited international support.

OBJECTIVE 3c: Involve the international community more actively to forge international consensus to stabilize Afghanistan.

Note that Pakistan’s objectives precede those of Afghanistan, suggesting that the root of Afghanistan’s insurgency- and terrorism-related issues lie east of the Durand. This is old news, though perhaps the Obama administration is now prepared to do something about it. With a renewed Pakistani military offensive bloodbath in Swat and the clock ticking towards coalition forces’ egress from Afghanistan, the US may feel compelled to nip the Taliban insurgency in the bud in Pakistan, despite any diplomatic friction it may cause in doing so.

Links for 15/09/09

Merrikh — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:01:39 +0000

– Photo by Michael Kamber for the New York Times

Lil extra justice in Swat? | (NYT) Pakistani Army is being accused of extrajudicial killings of Islamic militants in Swat Valley, “scores, perhaps hundreds, of bodies dumped on the streets”. Some dead are bearing evidence of torture or summary execution. The Army acknowledges bodies have been discovered, but claim the deaths are solely the result of civilian retribution.
Pak. Army to start operation in Waziristan | (Dawn) DG Athar Abbas has indicated that the military is ready to begin an operation in Waziristan, and indicated that the strategy would differ from that in NWFP because there are “foreign terrorists” in the area.
NATO strike in S. Waz? | (The Nation) Report of a possible NATO airstrike in S. Waziristan. No casualties, though reports of continuing low-altitude flights of US spyplanes over the region.
Afghan violence “unprecedented” says Canadian gov’t report | (NP) Canadian troops faced “unprecedented violence in Kandahar” this past summer, according to a gov’t report. “Despite advances on development projects…security conditions reached an all-time low last year.” Canada is firmly resolved to exit Afghanistan in 2011, even if Obama nicely asks Harper on Wed.

Links for 14/09/09

Merrikh — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:11:15 +0000

– Sir Richard Francis Burton, Notes on…Pushtu or Affghan Language (1849)

Manhunt for Fazl in Swat • Drone strike kills 5 in N.Waz • 50 Taliban killed in Farah clash
The Slow and Quiet Fall of Kandahar | (WP) Strategically, possibly the most important city in Afghanistan, Kandahar is still starkly in the shadow of Taliban influence. “‘Kandahar is at the top of the list[...]We simply do not have enough resources to address the challenges there.” Meanwhile:
US Commanders consider moving firepower east | (Telegraph) US forces in Afghanistan consider moving operations east in order to combat insurgencies based in Pakistani tribal regions such as Waziristan. Redeployment from the south could bring resistance from British forces struggling to control the Taliban insurgency in Helmand Province. Pakistan surely won’t be too happy either.

Update on Swat Taliban Arrests

Merrikh — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 16:05:02 +0000

Statements by acting Swat spokesman Salman and TNSM leader Maulana Fazlullah have shed light upon circumstances surrounding the recent arrest of prominent Pakistani Taliban in Swat Valley. Taliban statements on Friday suggested the five senior officials were involved in peace negotiations with Pakistani military authorities at the time of their arrest, a charge the military has outright denied. In a recorded message delivered to spokesman Salman on Friday night, Fazlullah reveals his men were, in fact, duped into capture, and voices his feeling of betrayal and erosion of trust in Swat negotiations:

Maulana Fazlullah made it clear that he and his men had lost trust in the Pakistan Army after it allegedly invited his organisation for peace talks and arrested the five negotiators. He said a need may arise again for the government and the military to talk to the Taliban, but the Swat Taliban had decided once and for all not to hold any negotiations with the rulers.

Salman adds that peace talks proceeded well for three days until a stalemate was reached when Pakistani military demanded Taliban surrender militants responsible for sabotaging the previous Swat peace deal.

Fazlullah speaks candidly about the state of the Pakistani Taliban , confirming the organization has indeed been weakened by the recent arrests:

“The Taliban movement is presently in a state of illness. When you are ill, your activities are curtailed. That is what has happened to Taliban organisation, but it would bounce back.”

Meanwhile, Major General Athar Abbas dismissed the idea of peace talks with Taliban “terrorists” altogether, adding, “if they want to surrender, they should lay down their arms and hand themselves over to the law-enforcement agencies…”

…

The question is, whose PR outfit are we to believe? The TNSM may simply be trying to spin the story and control damage while making the Pakistani Army look bad, but personally, I think I like Taliban customer service better.

Maulana Fazlullah made it clear that he and his men had lost trust in the Pakistan Army after it allegedly invited his organisation for peace talks and arrested the five negotiators. He said a need may arise again for the government and the military to talk to the Taliban, but the Swat Taliban had decided once and for all not to hold any negotiations with the rulers.

Links for 11/09/09

Merrikh — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:18:14 +0000

Pakistan can hold onto its Rs10 million | (Al Jazeera) Pakistani Army has arrested TTP spokesman Muslim Khan along with four other senior Taliban officials in Swat . Al Jazeera reports Taliban claims they entered peace negotiations with the Pakistani military a week ago, while other sources suggest they were lured straight into custody.
Zardari rejects Obama’s AfPak policy | (FT) Zardari criticizes the theory of a linked Afghanistan-Pakistan policy, stating they are “distinctly different countries and cannot be lumped together for any reason.” Save for say, a common Taliban insurgency and ISI’s history of strategic involvement up north…
How not to enter a valley in Afghanistan | (FP) A great little story that somehow captures everything about Western mistakes made in Afghanistan.
Growers nostalgic for the opium trade | (The National) “You may not know it from my face, but I am a master. I know how to make the opium from the field until it is cooked in the factory…”

Links for 10/09/09

Merrikh — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 00:29:58 +0000

4 days with the Taliban | (NYT) Journalist Stephen Farrell describes his kidnapping by Taliban in Kunduz Province and early-morning rescue by British Forces which left his friend, Afghani reporter Sultan Munadi, dead in the crossfire.
Why is Afghanistan so hard? | (FP) Stephen Walt enumerates some of the strategic paradoxes of the Afghan mission, why US efforts in the country are doomed to result in backward steps.
NATO chief “alarmed by growing skepticism” | (BBC) NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen steps up to rally support for the darkening war, meanwhile EU leaders call for a UN summit to discuss Afghanistan’s future.
Taliban presence “across almost all of Afghanistan” | (Reuters) A security map produced by a policy thinktank reveals “substantial Taliban activity in at least 97 percent of the country”.